[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Ferrochrome Market Stabilizes, Chrome Ore Prices Decline Steadily

On November 28, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,950-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,000-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,100-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the quotation for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the quotation for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The boost in sentiment brought by the slight decline in steel mill tender prices was largely digested, and the ferrochrome market gradually stabilized this week. With long-term contract prices higher than retail prices, ferrochrome producers actively fulfilled long-term contract orders, while retail market quotations saw limited fluctuations and sales were relatively limited. The continued decline in chrome ore prices drove down ferrochrome production costs, leaving producers with good profit margins and maintaining high operating rates. According to SMM data, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production in November increased by 60,200 mt MoM, a rise of 7.32%. Although downstream stainless steel faced production cut news due to the year-end off-season, the actual implementation was expected to be limited. Coupled with the supply gap caused by low-priced imported ferrochrome, there was rigid support for the procurement demand for domestic ferrochrome, leaving room for further increases in ferrochrome production. The ferrochrome market is expected to operate steadily in the short term. However, in the long run, production cuts triggered by the sluggish stainless steel market, combined with growing ferrochrome output, may push ferrochrome supply into a surplus, putting pressure on prices.

Raw material side, on November 28, 2025, the spot quotation for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 51.5-52 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 40-42% South African raw ore was 47.5-49 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was 52-53 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 53-54 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 56-58 yuan/mtu, and the quotation for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder was 59.5-60.5 yuan/mtu, down 0.5-1 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. For futures, the new round quotation for 40-42% South African fines fell to $263/mt.

Chrome ore prices continued to decline, and with no significant release in demand, the chrome ore market was in the doldrums this week. Spot side, port inventory fluctuated at high levels, with the total inventory this week increasing slightly by 1% WoW to 3.5785 million mt, keeping pressure on traders to sell. Furthermore, the current significant inversion between spot and futures prices led to pessimistic market sentiment. Although some ferrochrome producers started purchasing, their counteroffer prices were below the quotation range, resulting in limited actual transactions. Zimbabwean concentrate supplies were dispersed, and recent port arrivals were high, leading to significant price drops; their economic advantages squeezed the quotation space for South African fines; mainstream Turkish powder quotations loosened and followed the downward trend. At the futures level, the new round of overseas market offers for 40-42% South African fines at the end of this week fell $7 MoM to $263/mt, which was relatively in line with market participants' earlier expectations and is expected to have some negative impact on the spot market next week. Despite the growth in ferrochrome production and fluctuations at peak levels, port inventories of chrome ore continued to show a buildup trend, with supply persistently increasing and the surplus issue becoming prominent, putting significant downward pressure on prices. In the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to operate mainly in the doldrums.